Odds Set for Major League Baseball Wild Card Series Games
MLB's postseason schedule began to take shape on Sunday when Alejandro Kirk of the Blue Jays hit his second home run of the game to deep center against the Tampa Bay Rays. The oddsmakers lined up.
The catcher for the Toronto Blue Jays hit a grand slam and two home runs. With tears in his eyes, Kirk blew kisses to the 42,083 spectators at Rogers Centre, making it Toronto's greatest sporting event since the 2015 Jose Bautista bat flip. The Jays won the American League East after defeating the Rays 13–4.
While the Mariners had already secured the AL West, the Cleveland Guardians completed a historic comeback by winning the Central Division.
Thus, the AL best-of-three wildcard games are set: Detroit will play the Guardians in Cleveland at 1:08 p.m., while the Red Sox will play the Yankees in New York on Tuesday at 6:08 p.m. The American League Division Series will begin next Saturday in Toronto with the winner of Boston and New York. Seattle will host the ALDS if Detroit defeats Cleveland.
Tuesday is the start of the wild card games
Cincinnati was aware that they would secure the final wildcard NL place if they defeated Milwaukee on Sunday. 4-2. The Brewers prevailed. The Mets needed to defeat the Marlins in order to qualify. The Mets are out after a 4-0 loss.
The Phillies and Brewers await the winners of those series in the National League Division Series, while the Reds travel to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers on Tuesday at 9:08 p.m. and the Padres travel to Wrigley Field to play the Cubs at 3:08 p.m.
At DraftKings, the Guardians (Gavin Williams) are +138 moneyline favorites for Tuesday's game, while the Tigers (Tarik Skubal) are -169 favorites. The Red Sox (Garrett Crochet) are at +112 while the Yankees (Max Fried) are at -136 in New York, according to DraftKings.
The Padres (Nick Pivetta) are the moneyline favorites at -105, while the Cubs (TBD) are the moneyline favorites at -115 at BetMGM. The Reds (Hunter Greene) are the moneyline favorites at +165, while the Dodgers (Blake Snell) sit at -200.
“There is a bunch of action coming in on these best-of-three Wild Card series, with the Yankees/Red Sox unsurprisingly seeming to be the most popular,” said Eric Biggio, Lead Baseball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “Overall, we have seen good two-way action so far. We can’t wait for tomorrow, as there will be a lot of action from the first game through the last. People love backing Tarik Skubal, so we anticipate that to continue tomorrow morning.”
Noteworthy Injuries for Tuesday
Notable injuries: Due to a forearm injury, Jazz Chisholm of the Yankees is limited in his daily activities. Sunday's 4-1 victory over the Orioles did not include him in the starting lineup. While relief pitcher Jordan Hicks was cleared to play catch after a 15-day IL stint due to a shoulder ailment, Red Sox starting pitcher Dustin May, who has been on the 15-day DL with an elbow issue, threw his second live bullpen session on Friday. After spending 60 days on the injured list due to an elbow ailment, John Means, the starting pitcher for the Guardians, pitched 5.1 innings for Triple-A Columbus on Friday.
According to MLB.com, Nick Lodolo, who is throwing pitches from a bullpen mound, and Austin Hays, the left fielder for the Reds, are both day-to-day. Cubs catcher Miguel Amaya's ankle is undergoing Triple A rehab, while Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy is anticipated to return on Tuesday.
“As of Monday afternoon, the Tigers-Guardians and Red Sox-Yankees matchups are drawing the most action for Wild Card series betting,” said Adrian Horton, Senior Director, North American Sports Trading, ESPN BET. “The Dodgers are our most bet Series Winner overall on a fairly lopsided split of tickets, followed by the Guardians and Yankees, though action is much closer to 50-50 in those series.”
Brewers and Dodgers Well-liked World Series wagers
Emmanuel Clase, a bullpen pitcher for the Guardians, has not been available since an inquiry into suspected gambling ties started earlier this season. Prior to the ban, Clase had 24 saves this season and 47 last season.
"The Dodgers and Brewers are two of the most popular bets to win the World Series. Surprisingly, the Yankees winning it all would be the best outcome for the sportsbook,” said Halvor Egeland, a BetMGM senior trader. “If the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox advance, this could be the most bet MLB Playoffs in BetMGM history.”
The Mariners are the favorite at +200 in BetMGM's AL pennant betting, while the Tigers have the highest ticket percentage (18.2%). At 23.3%, the Yankees have the highest handling percentage. The Phillies are the favorite at +210 on the NL pennant side, while the Dodgers and Phillies have the highest ticket percentage at 14.0%. The Dodgers have the greatest handling percentage (17.0%).
Great Value on Red Sox for Bettors
“Yankees-Red Sox certainly should be the most bet,” said Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, and an industry sports betting consultant. “Yankees are very short in my opinion, -165 to take the series outright. Always a heavily backed public favorite obviously, but that price to me seems to be getting out ahead of that action, so some great value on Boston at that inflated price for them coming back.”
In addition, Gray plans to watch the Reds against. Dodgers series. At the start of the season, we assumed LA would avoid the wildcard, but here they are, and rightfully so in terms of cost—a massive -245 to win the series. Although LA's offense is undoubtedly superior, the Reds' pitching is comparable. Since the public believes the Dodger bats will be hammering it at home, I anticipate seeing a lot of action on the Overs.